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International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center
(IEVPC)


                                     Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Monitoring and Warning System (CMWS)

The CMWS is a planned global network that when fully developed and funded, is intended to link all Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) status, reports and data together for information, research, and warning purposes. At the heart of the CMWS will be the Operations Center in Canberra, Australia under the management of the Director of Research.
 
A CGE is defined by the IEVPC as any geophysical process that results in an energy release corresponding to an earthquake of magnitude moment greater than or equal to M6.0, or a volcanic eruption that is equal to or greater than a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 5.0.
 
The Operations Center is expected to derive its critical information for CGE prediction from multiple sources to include, on site monitoring equipment and field monitoring teams of IEVPC personnel, government and private satellite data and imagery, partner institutions, universities, IEVPC branch research offices of Associate Scientists and other researchers. From this location, CGE information and CGE Warning Notices (CWN) and special data are provided to IEVPC customers under a Services Agreement with the IEVPC. The IEVPC also issues special information reports to government offices, international geophysical event monitoring and reporting organizations and public press releases and Test program information as the situation may demand. The IEVPC Headquarters in Orlando, Florida is also linked into the Operations Center. 

                                                                                         CGE Warning Process


 
The CGE warning process is based on the determination of time remaining before a CGE strikes. Using the IEVPC’s proprietary set of CGE precursor signals, the IEVPC Operations center may then assign a “Stage” or time-to-strike category to the CGE and issue a CGE Warning Notice (CWN) to the affected area customer or to the public. The IEVPC warning process is a time-based warning system. It is in essence a countdown timer leading up to when a CGE event begins.The CGW Warning Stages table below defines the warning levels that are planned for future use by the IEVPC. The CWN starts at the point in time where the precursors first become evident but do not necessarily start at Stage 1. By the time the IEVPC has been asked to set up its monitoring equipment for a customer, the natural progression of the CGE may have already advanced to a point where there is less time available than compared to when the first precursors are normally recognizable. A CWN defines the magnitude, location and time frame of the CGE and other information that may be helpful in preparation for the predicted CGE strike. Though there may be adjustments over time as the CGE comes closer, once classified as a CGE, it continues to be regarded as a dangerous geophysical event that may result in catastrophic damage or loss of life in the area specified in the CWN. 
 
                                                                                   The CGE Warning Notice (CWN)

 A CGE Warning Notice (CWN) is the primary document to be issued by the IEVPC for identifying the characteristics and timing leading up to the catastrophic geophysical event, i.e., earthquake, tsunami or volcano, etc.. This standard form is developed in the IEVPC Operations Center by the Director of Research and is communicated via the CMWS to designated recipients, or those nations/states at risk of the specified CGE. Typically, data analysis will include satellite input and branch office information which will be processed along with IEVPC field monitoring sites and then passed to the Operations Center for evaluation at each stage of the CGE timeline. Once the precursors are verified for a particular Stage, a CWN will be issued. As the next set of precursors for the following shorter time period are detected, a new CWN with an increased Stage number may be published.  A sample CWN Form is shown below.

                    International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC)

                                                                                        P.O. Box 607147 * Orlando, FL 32860 
                                                                                                                  
 

 

                     Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Monitoring and Warning System (CMWS) 

                                CGE Warning Notice (CWN) 

1. CGE ID #:  
2. Effective Date:

001-01-11-XX 
Monday , May 7, 2012 
3. CGE Description:Earthquake (≥M8.5) and Possible Tsunami 
4. Warning Stage: Stage 6 – A major earthquake will occur within days.
 
5. Location: 


6. Depth:
Sumatra, Indonesia
Coordinates: XX.XX N, XXX.XX E 

45 km
  
7. CGE Characteristics:This predicted earthquake will likely cause widespread property damage and loss of

life to the communities on the XXX islands and others within 100km from the noted epicenter. The

earthquake to reach a magnitude of 8.5 + and as such may generate a dangerous tsunami with local wave heights approaching  18 meters or greater.
 

All personnel in the affected area should begin movement to emergency locations and away from shore lines immediately. Indonesian national earthquake and monitoring services and government personnel are already active and assisting in personnel protection. Local emergency personnel should be in final staging areas to react to the CGE effects once the CGE strike is over. After shocks in the range of M5.0 to 7.0 may be experienced in the aftermath of the CGE. Loss of emergency communications and regular cell phone service may be lost in the hours before the quake hits.  

                                                                    (SAMPLE FORM)  

 
8. Principal Researcher: Dr. Dong Choi, Director of Research, IEVPC
                                            IEVPC Operations Center, Canberra, Australia
                                             dchoi@ievpc.org


                                                                                 CMWS Warning Stages

In order to convey the proper level of risk and time remaining before a CGE hits, categories or “stages” have been established. The following table defines the time frame and preparedness warnings for each CGE Warning Stage. Ranging from Stage 1, at a time years away from a CGE event, the warning stages progress to higher Stage numbers up to Stage 10, the very moment when an earthquake, tsunami or volcano will take place. Pragmatically, CWN’s may not be issued after Stage 8 is reached when only hours remain before the CGE event. When advanced communications and alert systems are available in the affected area, a Stage 9 (minutes) warning may be issued. 

                                                                                  CMWS Warning Stages


                                                       
CGE Warning          Time Before                            Definition
                                                              Stage                   CGE Strike            

                                                                                     Stage 1                              10 Years                            A CGE may occur with 10 years along a 
                                                                                                                                                                            geological path defined in the posted in
                                                                                                                                                                            the Stage 1 “CGE Warning Notice.”(CWN)
          
                         
                                                                                      Stage 2                             3 Years                            A CGE may occur within 3 years in the                  
                                                                                                                                                                         specified area noted in the Stage 2 CWN.
        
 
                                                                                      Stage 3                              2 Years                           A CGE may occur within 2 years when
                                                                                                                                                                         associated with other CGE precursors as noted
                                                                                                                                                                         in the Stage 3 CWN.
   
                
                                                                                      Stage 4                              Months                          A CGE will occur within the next twelve months
                                                                                                                                                                         as specified in the Stage 4 CWN. Long lead time
                                                                                                                                                                         preparations should be taken.
 
  
                                                                                      Stage 5                              Weeks                            A CGE will occur within weeks. Immediate
                                                                                                                                                                         preparations should be made to prepare for
                                                                                                                                                                         this destructive event as specified
                                                                                                                                                                         in the Stage 5 CWN.
 

                                                                                       Stage 6                                Days                             A CGE is imminent and will occur within 
                                                                                                                                                                          days to a week. Emergency operations and final
                                                                                                                                                                          preparations must be in place as specified in
                                                                                                                                                                          the Stage 6 CWN.
                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                        Stage 7                                 Day                             A CGE will strike within 1-2 days. All personnel
                                                                                                                                                                          should be at emergency protection sites 
                                                                                                                                                                          as specified in the Stage 7 CWN.
   
   
                                                                                        Stage 8                              Hours                             A CGE will strike within hours. Personnel
                                                                                                                                                                           should be in protected structures to withstand
                                                                                                                                                                           the CGE effects specified in the Stage 8 CWN. 

                                                                                        Stage 9                            Minutes                           A CGE will strike within minutes. Warning 
                                                                                                                                                                           sirens or similar alerts must be made at once.
                                                                                                                                                                           All personnel should be fully protected for 
                                                                                                                                                                           immediate CGE effects as specified
                                                                                                                                                                           in the Stage 8 CWN. It is unlikely this CWN will
                                                                                                                                                                           be posted before the strike. All preparations 
                                                                                                                                                                           for the CGE should be active per Stage 8 CWN.

                  

                                                                                       Stage 10                     CGE Begins                           A CGE is in process or has started. 
                                                                                                                                                                           Stage 9 CWN preparations apply.