and Volcano Prediction Center
Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Monitoring and Warning System (CMWS)
The CMWS is a planned global network that when fully developed and funded, is intended to link all Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) status, reports and data together for information, research, and warning purposes. At the heart of the CMWS will be the Operations Center in Canberra, Australia under the management of the Director of Research.
A CGE is defined by the IEVPC as any geophysical process that results in an energy release corresponding to an earthquake of magnitude moment greater than or equal to M6.0, or a volcanic eruption that is equal to or greater than a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 5.0.
The Operations Center is expected to derive its critical information for CGE prediction from multiple sources to include, on site monitoring equipment and field monitoring teams of IEVPC personnel, government and private satellite data and imagery, partner institutions, universities, IEVPC branch research offices of Associate Scientists and other researchers. From this location, CGE information and CGE Warning Notices (CWN) and special data are provided to IEVPC customers under a Services Agreement with the IEVPC. The IEVPC also issues special information reports to government offices, international geophysical event monitoring and reporting organizations and public press releases and Test program information as the situation may demand. The IEVPC Headquarters in Orlando, Florida is also linked into the Operations Center.
CGE Warning Process
The CGE warning process is based on the determination of time remaining before a CGE strikes. Using the IEVPC’s proprietary set of CGE precursor signals, the IEVPC Operations center may then assign a “Stage” or time-to-strike category to the CGE and issue a CGE Warning Notice (CWN) to the affected area customer or to the public. The IEVPC warning process is a time-based warning system. It is in essence a countdown timer leading up to when a CGE event begins.The CGW Warning Stages table below defines the warning levels that are planned for future use by the IEVPC. The CWN starts at the point in time where the precursors first become evident but do not necessarily start at Stage 1. By the time the IEVPC has been asked to set up its monitoring equipment for a customer, the natural progression of the CGE may have already advanced to a point where there is less time available than compared to when the first precursors are normally recognizable. A CWN defines the magnitude, location and time frame of the CGE and other information that may be helpful in preparation for the predicted CGE strike. Though there may be adjustments over time as the CGE comes closer, once classified as a CGE, it continues to be regarded as a dangerous geophysical event that may result in catastrophic damage or loss of life in the area specified in the CWN.
The CGE Warning Notice (CWN)
A CGE Warning Notice (CWN) is the primary document to be issued by the IEVPC for identifying the characteristics and timing leading up to the catastrophic geophysical event, i.e., earthquake, tsunami or volcano, etc.. This standard form is developed in the IEVPC Operations Center by the Director of Research and is communicated via the CMWS to designated recipients, or those nations/states at risk of the specified CGE. Typically, data analysis will include satellite input and branch office information which will be processed along with IEVPC field monitoring sites and then passed to the Operations Center for evaluation at each stage of the CGE timeline. Once the precursors are verified for a particular Stage, a CWN will be issued. As the next set of precursors for the following shorter time period are detected, a new CWN with an increased Stage number may be published. A sample CWN Form is shown below.
CMWS Warning Stages
In order to convey the proper level of risk and time remaining before a CGE hits, categories or “stages” have been established. The following table defines the time frame and preparedness warnings for each CGE Warning Stage. Ranging from Stage 1, at a time years away from a CGE event, the warning stages progress to higher Stage numbers up to Stage 10, the very moment when an earthquake, tsunami or volcano will take place. Pragmatically, CWN’s may not be issued after Stage 8 is reached when only hours remain before the CGE event. When advanced communications and alert systems are available in the affected area, a Stage 9 (minutes) warning may be issued.
CMWS Warning Stages
CGE Warning Time Before Definition
Stage CGE Strike
Stage 1 10 Years A CGE may occur with 10 years along a
geological path defined in the posted in
the Stage 1 “CGE Warning Notice.”(CWN)
Stage 2 3 Years A CGE may occur within 3 years in the
specified area noted in the Stage 2 CWN.
Stage 3 2 Years A CGE may occur within 2 years when
associated with other CGE precursors as noted
in the Stage 3 CWN.
Stage 4 Months A CGE will occur within the next twelve months
as specified in the Stage 4 CWN. Long lead time
preparations should be taken.
Stage 5 Weeks A CGE will occur within weeks. Immediate
preparations should be made to prepare for
this destructive event as specified
in the Stage 5 CWN.
Stage 6 Days A CGE is imminent and will occur within
days to a week. Emergency operations and final
preparations must be in place as specified in
the Stage 6 CWN.
Stage 7 Day A CGE will strike within 1-2 days. All personnel
should be at emergency protection sites
as specified in the Stage 7 CWN.
Stage 8 Hours A CGE will strike within hours. Personnel
should be in protected structures to withstand
the CGE effects specified in the Stage 8 CWN.
Stage 9 Minutes A CGE will strike within minutes. Warning
sirens or similar alerts must be made at once.
All personnel should be fully protected for
immediate CGE effects as specified
in the Stage 8 CWN. It is unlikely this CWN will
be posted before the strike. All preparations
for the CGE should be active per Stage 8 CWN.
Stage 10 CGE
A CGE is in process or has started.