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               Catastrophic Geophysical Event Warning Notices (CWN)

On this page the IEVPC posts its earthquake and volcano CWN's based on the stages defined in the CMWS.

The successful end of the Test Program phase 1 and 2 in summer 2015 has caused the IEVPC to re-implement its earthquake prediction process in the form of "Observations" (or CWN) that describe conditions that may indicate the possibility of an earthquake of greater than M 6.0 magnitude.

The following CWN' s are active:


1. The CGE Test Program Observation 002-16-02-17 has been closed as a result of the July 11, 2017 M6.6 earthquake in New Zealand.

Analysis of the M6.6 quake shows that the predicted event took place 198 km NW of Auckland Island, New Zealand along the Alpine fault line as expected at 07:00:00:01 UTC on July 11, 2017. The magnitude was within the range predicted (M7.0+/- 0.5) and at the right depth of 10.0 km compared to the depth predicted (10-30km). The original February 17, 2017 CWN for the quake was extended thru July 17, 2017 because of new precursor signals and so the quake happened within the expected period. The epicenter however was not in the Cook Strait but further south along the Alpine fault. This difference is accounted for in the unique geological setting - the world class deep-fracture system, that is the Alpine Fault through which seismic energy is linked at a deep level. The movement took place on both ends of the crustal block of South Island. This nature of the Alpine Fault has important implications for other large earthquakes in the New Zealand area.

Recently published papers in the June 2017 NCGT Journal (www.ncgtjournal.com) addressed the likelihood of more catastrophic quakes in the New Zealand area as the next solar minimum/solar hibernation continues. 

2. The CGE Test Program Observation for Kamchatka (001-25-01-17) has been closed as a result of the successfully predicted earthquake on July 17, 2017.

The expect quake took place at a depth of 15 km (EMSC) and with a magnitude of M7.7